Unlocking quantum’s potential and confronting its threats

Science fiction has always featured quantum physics to some degree, that wacky futuristic technology that enables a kind of scientific wizardry that can accomplish almost anything. Entanglement and quantum tunnelling have been used by several Star Trek captains for subspace communication, translocation to alien worlds, and even the theoretical underpinnings of faster-than-light warp drives.

 

So what exactly is quantum computing? At its core, all computing comes down to bits - the smallest unit of digital information. In classical computing, each bit can only hold one of two values: off (0) or on (1), and they’re processed sequentially. Quantum computing, however, works differently. Thanks to the principles of superposition and entanglement, a quantum bit (or qubit) can be 0, 1, or both at the same time. This allows quantum computers to explore multiple possibilities simultaneously. Put simply: traditional computing is like reading every book in a library one after another, while quantum computing is like opening and absorbing them all at once.

 

The next great threat to digital trust

This emerging form of computing has incredible potential already such as calculating storms down to the atom, finding novel battery chemistries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, and simulating molecules with atomic precision. However, because of its wide range of capabilities, it also poses one of the biggest risks to cyber-security. Even the most sophisticated encryption available today could be broken in a matter of hours or minutes by quantum algorithms. Gartner estimates that by 2026, 20% of businesses will have to allocate fixed resources to hazards associated to quantum technology because of the threat it poses.

 

We’re already seeing this threat unfold with a strategy known as "harvest now, decrypt later”. Malicious actors are already getting ready for the arrival of quantum computing by collecting encrypted data now that could be deciphered in three, five, or ten years after quantum devices become more widely available.

 

An example of how serious this threat is becoming can be seen in in the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) of the United Kingdom. The centre has already had to repeatedly caution organisations to ready their systems for quantum-enabled attacks by 2035, since advances in powerful computing have the potential to disrupt digital encryption. Every development gets us one step closer to the day when malevolent actors may quickly decrypt years or even decades’ worth of secrets and private information.

 

Charting the road to quantum computing

Quantum computing has advanced from the experimental stage to initial practical application this year. Prominent companies including Microsoft, Google, and IBM have all released ambitious plans for real-world quantum computing. This stage in time is known as the "pre-quantum epoch," in which commercialised and accessible quantum computing is either non-existent or only available to large corporations such as IBM and Amazon, which are already renting out quantum computing time.

 

Given the current pace of development, important quantum milestones will be reached every year after this, but according to IBM, the full potential of quantum computing will be realised at scale in 2033, opening the door to widespread applications in machine learning, security, and optimisation. McKinsey estimates that by 2035, useful advancements made possible by quantum computing might bring in up to $97 billion globally.

 

However, the truth is that timetables could change significantly while this countdown is in progress. For example, improvements in AI could hasten development by assisting in the resolution of issues like noise, decoherence, and hardware flaws, all of which contribute to mistake rates today. AI has the potential to enable commercially viable quantum computing far sooner than even the hyperscalers anticipate if these mistakes are fixed.

 

With this in mind, companies ought to start getting ready for the "Quantum Moment" now rather than later. Every CEO will turn to their CISO and ask, "How prepared are we?" as the corporate world goes into a frenzy over the very public event where a bad actor utilises quantum computing to decrypt encrypted data. While time is still on our side, businesses should prepare to incorporate Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) and keep an eye on developments in AI and quantum technologies.

 

Building resilience for the quantum era

Estimating when your company will need quantum-resistant encryption to safeguard important data should be the first step in any post quantum plan. Consider this: How long must the secrets in your product stay secret? The lifespan of those secrets should then be subtracted from the estimated time when quantum cryptanalysis is most likely to become feasible. You can use the outcome to determine when quantum-resistant encryption needs to be implemented.

 

Organisations should set up checkpoints at the board and C-suite level to make sure their plans for quantum preparedness remain on course. These plans need to go from preparation to implementation, with deployment across business areas beginning with the most crucial to secure. When quantum computers pose a real threat, traditional companies can employ the three publicly available encryption algorithms provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

 

IT teams must also take identity considerations into account. The majority of authentication and authorisation methods use encryption to sign assertions and tokens; if this encryption is broken, it may allow for impersonation attempts and unauthorised access.

 

Preparing today for tomorrow’s quantum reality

Although post-quantum cryptography is still in its early stages, the trajectory is clear. Industry analysts project the cryptography market will grow at nearly 40% annually between 2025 and 2030, reaching $7.82 billion by the end of the decade and potentially tripling again to almost $30 billion by 2034. These figures reflect more than market momentum - they underscore a global recognition that the era of quantum threats is approaching fast.

 

The message for business leaders is simple: the countdown has already begun. Preparing for the Quantum Moment is no longer a theoretical exercise, but a strategic imperative. Those who act early - by strengthening identity, adopting post-quantum cryptography, and embedding resilience into their operations - will be the ones best positioned to thrive in a quantum-powered future.

 

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Steve Bradford is Senior Vice President EMEA at SailPoint

 

Main image courtesy of iStockPhoto.com and asbe