Shopify issues upbeat quarterly forecasts, $2 billion stock buyback plan; shares surge

Shopify projected quarterly revenue well above market estimates on Wednesday, as the e-commerce platform benefits from resilient consumer spending against a backdrop of U.S. tariffs and rising prices. 

 

U.S.-listed shares of the Ontario, Canada-based company jumped more than 10% premarket after it also announced a new share buyback plan of up to $2 billion.

While U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, rising cost-of-living challenges, and worries over the labor market have strained shopping budgets, consumer spending has held strong in the U.S., driven primarily by higher-income households. 

 

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a six-month high in early February, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. Consumer spending also increased solidly in October and November, aiding healthy holiday quarter sales for retailers. 

 

That is underpinning growth at Shopify, which primarily generates revenue by taking a cut of merchant sales through payment processing fees and by selling subscription plans to merchants. 

 

"We ended 2025 with strength across all merchant sizes, regions, and channels, setting us up well for 2026," said Shopify finance chief Jeff Hoffmeister.

The company has doubled down on integrating AI-based tools that help sellers with a range of tasks, including analyzing sales data and setting up stores, helping it attract both small-scale entrepreneurs and larger retailers.

Gross merchandise volume, or the total value of goods sold on the platform, was $123.84 billion in the holiday quarter, up from $94.46 billion in the prior year.

The company expects revenue to rise at a low-thirties percentage rate in the January-March quarter, compared with analysts’ estimate of a 25.2% rise, according to data compiled by LSEG. 

 

Total revenue rose 31% to $3.67 billion in the quarter ended December, beating estimates of $3.59 billion.

The company reported a gross profit of $1.69 billion in the quarter, a rise of more than 25% from last year. It expects profit to increase in the high-twenties percentage range in the current quarter.

 

(Reporting by Deborah Sophia in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)